IMANI presents Episode 3 of Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election analysis (PULSE), a biweekly curated social media-based sentiment analysis report aimed at tracking the sentiments of Ghanaians in the lead-up to the 2024 Election.
The analyses encompass data gathered from various platforms including Facebook, X (formerly known as Twitter), YouTube, Web, TikTok, Instagram, Podcasts, and Newsfeeds.
Internet Penetration in Ghana stands at approximately 50% of the total population, equating to around 15.7 million individuals, according to Statista.com. Of this figure, about 6.7 million people are active on social media, with Ghanaian Facebook accounts alone comprising around 8.7 million users/accounts. Approximately 90% of these social media users fall within the age bracket of 18 to 64 years, making them potential and eligible voters.
PULSE primarily monitors the main two contenders, the NPP and the NDC. However, for this third episode, sentiments and influence from other parties such as the PNC, CPP, ACP, PPP, as well as independent candidates like the Butterfly Movement, the New Force, and other emerging forces on the political landscape, are also considered.
Data collection is based on main keywords, with adjustments made as news themes evolve. For December and January, key keywords used for both major contenders included #Bawumia, #Mahama, #NPP, and #NDC.
Analysis for this third episode spans from January 15, 2024, to February 11, 2024. Recent events, including Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s highly publicized February 7 Speech on the Economy, necessitated the addition of keywords such as #itispossible and #Bawumiaspeaks to assess their impact on recent public opinion.
Sentiments are categorized into three values: positive, negative, and neutral. AI tools are employed to analyze language, tone, and sentiment conveyed in comments, tweets, and posts related to both candidates.
Public opinion on the two major candidates, Former President John Mahama and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, remained relatively unchanged until the recent public address by Dr. Bawumia on February 7.
Since the #BawumiaSpeaks event, negative sentiment on social media has almost tripled, rising from 13% to 35%. Before the event, the total negative sentiment was 13.22% per every 100 Social Media mentions, which nearly doubled to 35.71% after the speech. This surge in negative commentary indicates a significant shift in public perception, with over a third of the commentary being negative.
Notably, there were twice as many mentions of the NPP compared to the NDC over the analysis period. However, proportionally, the NPP received more negative mentions (21.71 per every 100 social media mentions) compared to the NDC (17.62 per every 100 social media mentions).
Before the UPSA event on February 7, the NPP had a total positive sentiment of 10.82%, which decreased to 9.37% after the speech.
Additionally, Nana Kwame Bediako, also known as Cheddar, emerged as the most talked-about independent candidate and a significant third force based on social media sentiment and engagement.